Monday, September 20, 2004

Quick exit from Iraq is likely

Quick exit from Iraq is likely

This is and interesting possibility. The author here, Robert Novak, makes some good points that make sence to me.

Let's break these quotes out one at at time.


Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.

Doing this avoides the issue of having to explain any extra troop callups, extra deaths, and expense of treasure. The fact is, and I have supported this war from day one, Bush has had no plan for the post war. Our military preformed brilliantly in defeating the professional military of Iraq. The problem for all major forces is to win the postwar. Can you pacify the nation and beat the gorilla forces?

Getting out now would not end expensive U.S. reconstruction of Iraq, and certainly would not stop the fighting. Without U.S. troops, the civil war cited as the worst-case outcome by the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate would be a reality. It would then take a resolute president to stand aside while Iraqis battle it out.

This is likely what will happen next. The problem is that we are buring up troops and the members of our reserves. You can't tap a temporary force, which is what the Guard and Reserves were intended to be, to be used as a full-time force. We can't afford that. We need the Reserve and Guard forces as the backup that they are. So, we need to pull the guys out of Iraq, or increase the active duty force strength by 2 division; like Kerry is saying (at the moment, anyway.) We had our civil war. Most groups of people, sadly, need to have one periodically. Iraq was particioned by colonial line, and not by tribal groups; just like Africa. This leeds to all sorts of problems. Sadly, the Shias are just going to have to be allowed to have their revenge. Otherwise they'll unite against us, and force us out anyway. Then, they'll get back to their war. So, might as well let em do it. The way I see it, we ought to stay teh current course for a while. There seems to be some new negotianing initiatives, and hte Iraqi national military is being trained. Give them a force for nationalism, and then pull out. At that point, we jsut hope for the best.

That's the way I see it...

One side note from article...

The Kerry campaign, realizing that its only hope is to attack Bush for his Iraq policy, is not equipped to make sober evaluations of Iraq. When I asked a Kerry political aide what his candidate would do in Iraq, he could do no better than repeat the old saw that help is on the way from European troops. Kerry's foreign policy advisers know there will be no release from that quarter.

Bush made the same mistake of hoping for European troops that aren't there. The bloody Europeans HAVE NO MILITARY! They are weak and useless. That was the Cold War trade. The war is fought on European soil wth US troops comming in like the cavalry. Cold war's over. Time for Europe to step up.


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